Potential yield of kharif rice is projected to reduce in extreme climate

                                                    Potential yield of rice in climate change scenarios

The simulation study involved 6.2 million simulations consisting of various varieties, management, sowing/ transplanting time for direct seeds/transplanted rice during different seasons (kharif, rabi and summer) for various rice growing regions in India. Results indicated that the climate potential for rice yield will not change significantly in future. However, significant reduction in climate potential of current varieties’ yield is projected in RCP 8.5 scenario which is an extremely high GHG emission scenario. Initial analysis on impact of climate change on transplanted rice yield in different management conditions indicated that the magnitude and direction of impact has high spatial variation. If no adaptation is followed, transplanted rice yield may reduce in some regions.  Initial analysis indicated that the low-input farms are projected to be vulnerable for rice yield in changing climates. Short-duration varieties with improved management can significantly improve the yields despite climate change